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IBnGR predicts 3.7% GDP growth in 2011


GDP growth in Poland will amount to 3.7% this year before accelerating again to 4.1% in 2012, according to a latest set of forecasts from the Gdansk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR), one of the country’s leading think tanks. In October the Institute put this year’s projected growth at 3.4%.

The IBnGR expects a stabilisation of recovery in the course of 2011, although quarter-to-quarter, economic growth is projected to slow gradually, from 4.1% y-o-y in Q1 to 3.3% y-o-y in Q4, due to rising reference base.

The single most important shift in the GDP mix over 2011-2012 will be a rebound in gross fixed capital formation, which is expected to increase by 7.4% this year and by 8.1% next, whereas inventory rebuilding will be a much smaller contributor to economic growth compared with last year. Private consumption is projected to rise by 3% in 2011 and by 3.9% in 2012. As a result, domestic demand will grow by 3.9% and 3.8%, respectively.

Faster employment growth is expected to bring the jobless rate down to 10.8% at the end of 2011 and to 9.6% at the end of 2012.

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