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EBRD raises growth forecast for Poland in 2011


2011-01-24



The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has upgraded its forecast of economic growth in Poland in 2011. The EBRD now expects the Polish economy to grow by 3.9% this year, up from 3.5% in its previous projection in October and faster than any other country in the Central Europe and the Baltics region. And the country’s economy is now estimated to have expanded by 3.6% in 2010, rather than by 3.3% as projected three months earlier.

In its latest quarterly economic report, the bank notes that growth in Poland “again surprised positively” last year, helped by resilient domestic demand and credit markets. However, the still high unemployment will continue to put a drag on household consumption in 2011, while a monetary tightening cycle likely to be pursued by the central bank “could aggravate problems from capital inflows”, with implications for financial stability. At the same time, stronger-than-expected growth in the eurozone and the US will boost external demand.

By way of comparison, the updated forecast for Central Europe and the Baltic countries puts projected growth in the region at 3.2% in 2011 after 2.5% in 2010. Economic growth in Slovakia is forecast to reach 3.7 this year, and the new projection for Hungary envisages growth of 2% (the EBRD no longer produces forecasts for the Czech Republic).



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