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Lewiatan Business Index inches up in November


2010-12-03



The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index gained one point to 44 in November, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. At the same time, the quarterly index rose by a further two points to 49. According to PKPP experts, this suggests that economic recovery in Poland has strong and stable foundations and that GDP growth is picking up to its potential rate.

In its commentary, the Confederation noted that domestic demand has taken over as the main contributor to economic growth in Poland, driven mainly by consumption and stock rebuilding. The strength of domestic demand has kept industrial output growing at a rapid pace, now that the contribution of exports has weakened. This, in turn, leads to positive job creation and higher consumer spending.

According to the Confederation, a domestic demand-led recovery means that the economic outlook is more stable thanks to lesser dependence on foreign demand. However, it does not immunise the country from the effects of volatility on financial markets, especially in the context of a rising public debt and high budget deficit. And an acceleration in business investment will be necessary for the recovery to become truly sustainable.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of 3-3.5% of GDP annually.



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