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BIEC: economic climate steady in November


2010-11-30



The Leading Indicator (WWK), which provides information on future trends in the economy, remained broadly unchanged for the fourth consecutive month in November, the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC) reported. The index is hovering near its pre-crisis levels.

Of the eight components of the WWK, two significantly improved compared with October, namely the rate of growth in new manufacturing orders and sentiment on the Warsaw stock market. The Bureau stressed that domestic orders have risen faster than export orders for several months already. The slower growth in export orders is a result of reduced international competitiveness of Polish goods, amid a stronger zloty. On the other hand, the rise in domestic orders is being supported by rising employment and moderate wage growth. The imminent VAT rise and first signs of accelerating consumer inflation are probably also having an impact, encouraging consumers to bring forward major purchases. The highest growth in orders occurred in furniture, textiles and electrical products.

Meanwhile, the financial situation of enterprises improved only marginally, as did labour productivity, and inventory levels remained unchanged. Managers' assessments of the general economic situation point to uncertainty about the strength of the recovery.

According to the BIEC, latest readings of the index indicate that economic growth in Poland continues to be supported by consumption, but that there are no other impulses that could push the economy on a higher growth path.

The WWK is a prognostic instrument. It is a measure of the current state of economic activity and provides advanced information on upturns and downturns in economic activity in relation to GDP as well as data on production, retail sales, wages and household incomes. The average prognostic timeframe of the WWK index in relation to the actual state of economic affairs ranges from 3 to 12 months, depending on the phase of the economic cycle.



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