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European Commission: Polish economy to accelerate steadily in 2011-2012


Economic growth in Poland will accelerate to 3.9% in 2011 from a projected 3.5% this year, and will quicken further to 4.2% in 2012, according to the latest European Economic Forecast, a regular publication by the European Commission.

According to Brussels, the main growth-supporting factors will be gradual improvement in the labour market, rebounding consumer and business confidence, and higher foreign capital inflows. Another driver will be public infrastructure investments, which are expected to accelerate further, stimulated partly by the Euro 2012 football championships. On the other hand, the contribution of foreign trade is forecast to be marginally negative.

The Commission mentions several downside risks for this scenario, notably a delayed loosening of credit conditions, which might put a brake on investment and consumption; and slow progress on the consolidation of public finances.

Three EU countries are expected to post higher rates of economic growth than Poland in 2010 (Sweden 4.8%, Slovakia 4.1% and Germany 3.7%), and one in 2011 (Estonia 4.4%). In 2012 Poland will again be the EU’s star performer in terms of GDP growth, according to the Commission.

The updated growth projections for the EU as a whole are 1.8% in 2010, 1.7% in 2011, and 2% in 2012. The euro area is forecast to grow by 1.7% this year, 1.5% next year and 1.8% in 2012.

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