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Nordea: Polish GDP growth to slow below 3% in 2011


Nordea, the Scandinavian financial services group, expects the Polish economy to lose some of its momentum towards the end of the year and in the first half of 2011, before accelerating again in 2012.

In its latest set of forecasts for Poland, Russia and the Baltic states, Nordea puts the projected rate of GDP growth in Poland in 2010 at 3.5%, but predicts slower growth of 2.9% in 2011. According to the bank, the rate of economic expansion is set to weaken due to a combination of three factors: a slowdown in exports owing to an anticipated slackening of growth among Poland’s main trading partners (notably Germany); the negative impact of the VAT rise and other deficit-reducing measures; and a substantial tightening of monetary policy, which will hurt credit availability.

However, in 2012 the economy will pick up speed again, with projected growth of 3.7%.

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