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IMF lifts forecast for Polish economy in 2010-2011


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised slightly its forecast of economic growth in Poland this year and next, the second upgrade in less than a month. The Fund expects the Polish economy to grow by 3.5% in 2010, up from 3.4% projected in its latest World Economic Outlook report published in early October; and to expand by 3.75-4% in 2011, up from 3.7%, though there are negative external risks to this scenario, according to the IMF.

The Fund noted that the Polish economy has shown itself to be more resilient than it had expected six months ago, and identified three major sources of strength going forward: strong employment growth that is expected to support consumption; improved corporate profitability and the likely associated boost to private investment; and a rise in EU-funded public investment.

According to the IMF, if the process of fiscal consolidation continues, the country’s public debt should not exceed 55% of GDP and its general government deficit should fall to 6.5-6.7% of GDP in 2011 from about 8% in 2010. By 2013, the deficit should drop below 5% of GDP, the IMF reckons. However, the Fund again noted that there were considerable negative risks to this baseline scenario.

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