Revised Convergence Programme forecasts 3% GDP growth in 2010

2010-02-10



The government has approved a revised version of the Convergence Programme, a document that outlines Poland’s road to the euro. The revision reflects the new reality of higher fiscal deficits resulting from the downturn, which must be brought down to comply with the Maastricht criteria.
The Convergence Plan assumes in its baseline scenario that economic growth in Poland will amount to 3% in 2010, 4.5% in 2011 and 4.2% in 2012. As a result, the general government deficit is projected to fall steadily from 7.2% of GDP in 2009 to 6.9% this year, 5.9% in 2011, and 2.9% in 2012. The general government debt is forecast to amount to 53.1% of GDP in 2010, 56.3% of GDP in 2011 and 55.8% of GDP in 2012.
The government estimates that the unemployment rate measured according to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) will increase by one percentage point this year to 9.2%, and will edge up to 9.3% in 2011, before easing to 8.9% in 2012. Inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is expected to drop to 2.1% this year from 4% in 2009, before accelerating to 2.7% in 2011 and 3.2% in 2012.
The document does not mention any specific date of euro entry, but reaffirms the government’s commitment to the swift adoption of the single currency. If the Programme’s projections are fulfilled, Poland would be ready to join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM2) in 2013 and adopt the euro in 2015.