Lewiatan Business Index climbs back to pre-crisis levels in January

2010-02-04

The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index jumped by seven points to 46 in December, returning to its pre-crisis levels, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index gained one point to 37.
In their commentary, PKPP experts drew attention to a number of developments that they said testified to the strength of the Polish economy. Retail sales and industrial output figures for November and December left no doubt that a recovery was underway, with continued resilience of private consumption and a levelling off of the downward trend in business investment, they noted. Furthermore, this recovery of domestic demand is being accompanied by continued strength of exports, which are already back to pre-crisis levels. Although domestic firms are still cautious about investing, due to uncertainty about the economic outlook, the inflow of foreign direct investment is above expectations. According to the PKPP Lewiatan, despite the country’s rising budget deficit and public debt, the resilience of the Polish economy and the health of its business and banking sectors make Poland an attractive location for foreign investors, and its appeal is being further enhanced by the exchange rate of the zloty and by labour productivity gains during the crisis, which were greater than in any other EU country.
The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of 3-3.5% of GDP annually.