IBnGR predicts 2.3% GDP growth in 2010

2010-01-31



The Polish economy will expand by 2.3% this year and will accelerate to 3.1% in 2011, according to a latest set of forecasts from the Gdansk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR), one of the country’s leading think tanks.
The Institute expects the construction sector to achieve the highest rate of value added growth in 2010 (6.9%), helped by infrastructure projects; market services will expand by less than 3%, i.e. comparable to 2009, while manufacturing will move firmly into positive territory with 1.9% growth. In all three sectors growth will accelerate in 2011.
The 2010-2011 recovery will be accompanied by a reversal of the downward trend in investment outlays, which are projected to rise by 2.5% this year and by 5.6% in 2010; and continued steady growth of private consumption, by 2.9% and 3.4%, respectively. As a result, domestic demand will return to positive growth.
The positive contribution of net exports to GDP growth will also be maintained over this period, the Institute predicts.
On the other hand, unemployment is forecast to continue to rise this year, albeit at a slower rate, and to start falling only in 2011.