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Morgan Stanley: GDP growth to be 1.3% in 2013


Morgan Stanley, the US investment bank, has lowered its forecast of economic growth in Poland in 2013 but raised its projection for next year.

According to the bank, the Polish economy entered 2013 in a weaker state that it had anticipated, and while latest data point to a stabilisation of economic conditions, GDP growth for the year as a whole will be low by Polish standards, at 1.3%, down from 1.5% in its previous projection.

At the same time, Morgan Stanley expects the economy to receive a positive stimulus from the government’s Inwestycje Polskie investment programme, the recent relaxation of lending guidelines and reductions in interest rates, and sees no structural obstacles to a recovery once the external environment improves. The bank therefore expects that GDP growth will pick up to 3% in 2013, compared with a previous forecast of 2.7%.

Morgan Stanley also revised downwards its inflation projections for 2013-2014, to 1.4% and 1.8% respectively, from 2.3% and 2%.

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