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Brussels: Polish GDP growth to be 1.2% in 2013


GDP growth in Poland will decelerate to 1.2% this year before picking up to 2.2% in 2014, the European Commission predicts in its winter economic forecast, released on 22 February.

According to Brussels, weak economic outlook of the country’s main trading partners is expected to hamper domestic confidence and worsen the situation of exporters, constraining domestic demand growth in 2013. A certain rebound is expected only towards the end of the year. Public investment is forecast to decline significantly amid fiscal consolidation and lower EU fund inflows, while private investment will moderate due to uncertain demand prospects and weak global sentiment, the Commission says. However, in late 2013 private investment is expected to recover, helped by an improvement in external demand, especially since companies have ample cash to invest and credit supply is set to improve as well. On the other hand, private consumption will remain subdued into 2014 as the unemployment rate remains high and households increase savings.

The general government deficit is projected to be 3.4% of GDP this year, down from 3.5% estimated in 2012, and to decline further to 3.3% in 2014. By contrast, the general government debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to rise to 57% in 2013 and 57.5% in 2014, from 55.8% in 2012.

By way of comparison, GDP growth in the Czech Republic is anticipated to be flat this year and to reach 1.9% in 2014; Slovakia’s economy is projected to expand by 1.1% in 2013 and by 2.9% in 2014; while Hungary is forecast to experience a 0.1% economic contraction this year, to be followed by growth of 1.3% in 2014.

In the EU as a whole GDP growth will be 0.1% this year, while the euro area will see a decline of 0.3%, according to the Commission. In 2014 the figures will be +1.6% and +1.4%, respectively.

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