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Lewiatan Business Index up in January


The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index gained three points to stand at 34 points in January, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. At the same time, the quarterly index slipped one point to 25.

According to the Confederation, the divergent performance of the two indices indicates that the economy will continue to decelerate in the first quarter of 2013, but that a recovery will start before the end of the year, and that GDP growth for 2013 as a whole will not be lower than in the preceding year.

However, the present downturn is more worrying, and the anticipated recovery likely to be weaker, than three years ago because of the sharp weakening of private consumption. Consumer spending provided a vital cushion during the previous global downturn, but due to procyclical macroeconomic policies it has now become a negative factor in its own right, compounding the weakness in investments and construction activity. Under these circumstances, foreign trade remains the sole engine of economic growth, but one that is not strong enough to reverse the downward trend on its own.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

Lewiatan Business Index in Poland, January 2012-January 2013

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