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IBnGR predicts 1.4% GDP growth in 2013


The Polish economy will expand at a rate of 1.4% in 2013, before accelerating to 2.3% in 2014, according to a latest set of forecasts from the Gdansk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR), one of the country’s leading think tanks.

The Institute expects GDP growth to decelerate to a low point of about 0.5% y-o-y in Q1 and Q2 2013 from an estimated 0.8% y-o-y in Q4 2012, but predicts that a gradual recovery will start in the second half of the year, driven by a pick-up in consumption and exports and despite continued weakness in investments, with growth projected to be 1.9% y-o-y in Q3 and 2.3% y-o-y in Q4. But while conditions will continue to improve in 2014, no sharp resurgence is to be expected next year, with the pace of economic expansion likely to remain below 2.5% y-o-y, the IBnGR reckons.

According to the Institute’s forecasts, in 2013 domestic demand will grow by 0.6%, thanks to a 1.7% rise in private consumption. On the other hand, gross fixed capital formation is projected to decline by 1.4%. But investments are expected to rebound in 2014 with an increase of 1.8%. Coupled with a 2.5% rise in private consumption, this will result in a 1.9% increase in domestic demand.

The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 13.8% at the end of 2013 and to fall to 13% in 2014. Average consumer inflation is forecast to slow to 2.4% y-o-y this year, and to accelerate to 2.9% y-o-y in 2014.

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