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EBRD: GDP growth to be 1.5% in 2013


Economic growth in Poland will decelerate to 1.5% in 2013 after an estimated 2% last year, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says in its latest economic outlook, published on 21 January.

According to the bank, weaker exports, reduced private investment, and negative effects for public spending of the ongoing fiscal consolidation programme will persist in the first half of 2013. With limited room for additional policy stimulus, and with the new investment support programme set up by the Polish government unlikely to make any substantial impact in the short term, GDP growth in the country will slow some more this year. Overall, however, the EBRD reckons deceleration in its transition region is bottoming out, and signs of stabilisation in the eurozone give cause for cautious optimism.

Slovakia is forecast to expand by 1.7% this year, compared with 2.2% in 2012, while Hungary is to see a mild contraction of 0.1%, following a 1.5% drop last year.

The Baltic states are expected to be the region’s best performers in 2013, with growth rates of about 3%.

The EBRD’s transition region includes Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovak Republic and Slovenia.

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