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Lewiatan Business Index down slightly in December


The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index shed one point to stand at 31 points in December, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index also slipped one point to 26.

In its commentary the Confederation notes that both indices remain at their lowest levels in 10 years, and their readings suggest that macroeconomic indicators for the fourth quarter of 2012 are likely to be worse than for Q3. A major cause for concern is the collapse of domestic demand, which appears largely self-inflicted by pro-cyclical macroeconomic policies, i.e. the government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation measures and a restrictive monetary stance of the central bank. Consumer spending has sharply decelerated amid rising unemployment and declining real wages, while the slump in the construction sector indicates that investment activity remains stagnant.

By contrast, the country’s foreign trade performance is holding up exceptionally well in the face of weakness in the global economy.

Even so, it is hard to expect any recovery without an effective adjustment of macroeconomic policies.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

Lewiatan Business Index in Poland, December 2011-December 2012

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