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HSBC: GDP growth to be 1.6% in 2013


2012-12-24



HSBC has lowered its forecast of GDP growth in Poland in 2012-2014 and raised its projection of the level of unemployment in the country over this period, citing a weaker outlook for consumption.

The bank expects GDP growth in Poland to slow to 1.6% in 2013 from an estimated 2.1% this year, with economic activity projected to continue to decelerate in the first half of next year. A recovery is expected to start in mid-2013, with growth picking up to 2.9% in 2014.

The registered unemployment rate will reach 13.2% by the end of December, HSBC reckons, and will rise further to 13.3% in 2013 and 13.5% in 2014.

According to the bank, inflation should return to the central bank’s target of 2.5% y-o-y already in January 2013. Any resulting boost to Poles’ purchasing power is likely to be neutralised by falling employment and anaemic wage growth, however, HSBC says. The average inflation rate is forecast to be 2.2% y-o-y in 2013 and 1.7% y-o-y in 2014, compared with 3.7% y-o-y in 2012.

The bank notes Poland has no significant macroeconomic imbalances, having brought its deficit and debt levels under control. The general government deficit is forecast to fall to 3% of GDP in 2014, from 3.3% in 2013 and 3.4% in 2012, while general government debt is expected to fall to 54.2% of GDP over this period, from 55.4% in 2013 and from an estimated 55.5% in 2012.

According to HSBC, the speed of the monetary losing undertaken by Poland’ central bank has been too slow.



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