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Current account deficit at €650m in October


The current account balance was negative in October and amounted to -€650m, according to preliminary data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The market had anticipated a significantly bigger deficit of about €1.1bn.

In the corresponding period of 2012 the current account balance totalled -€2bn. The sharp narrowing of the current account deficit was due primarily to a reversal in the trade account balance, which improved by €920m and showed a surplus of €225m. Furthermore, the deficit on the income account decreased by €127m, the surplus on the services account increased by €183m, while the balance on the current transfers account improved by €119m and turned back into a surplus of €53m.

At the same time, cumulative data for the 12 months ending in October show a current account deficit of €12.9bn, down by over a third compared with a year earlier. As with the monthly figure, the decline primarily reflects a sharp improvement on the trade account, whose deficit almost halved to a little over €5.6bn. The deficit on the income account also narrowed, by €447m. Moreover, the surplus on the services account surged by €984m, and the surplus on the current transfers account increased by €209m.

In 2011 as a whole the current account deficit stood at €18bn (i.e. 4.9% of GDP) and was 0.7% lower than the year before. We forecast that in 2012 the deficit will shrink to 3.6% of GDP.

Current account balance in Poland (? m), October 2011-October 2012

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