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Lewiatan Business Index up slightly in November


2012-12-04



The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index gained one point to stand at 32 points in November, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index remained unchanged at 27 points.

The fact that the quarterly index remains below the annual one means economic activity will continue to decelerate at least until the end of 2012, and with both indices at their lowest level since the survey began 10 years ago, the current slowdown is likely to be as painful as the one in 2009, the Confederation notes. Unlike three years ago, however, the present deceleration of economic growth in Poland is being driven to a much greater extent by a slump in domestic demand, and particularly in consumption. (The global downturn is much less severe than it was in 2009.) In fact, the decline in gross capital formation has been less steep than expected. By contrast, consumption tumbled in Q1-Q3, pulled down by the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts and by tight monetary policy, and is likely to remain weak until the end of the year. This has left net exports as the sole engine of growth.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

Lewiatan Business Index in Poland, November 2011-November 2012



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