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BIEC: economic climate down in November


The Leading Indicator (WWK), which provides information on future trends in the economy, shed 2.2 points in November, the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC) reported. Four components of the WWK improved and four deteriorated as compared with the preceding month.

New manufacturing orders weakened further in November, chiefly due to lower export orders. With output remaining at a broadly stable level, this led to higher inventories of finished goods in most industries. Labour productivity in the manufacturing sector likewise deteriorated, though could be a statistical phenomenon, the Bureau noted. And companies’ expectations about the economic outlook worsened.

On the other hand, assessments of the financial health of own company improved substantially for the first time in several months. According to the BIEC, this suggests that the cost-cutting efforts undertaken by companies in recent months – restricting wage growth, cutting jobs, running down inventories – are starting to bring benefits. There were also slight increases in household debt and money supply, and the Warsaw stock market continued its moderate recovery.

The WWK is a prognostic instrument. It is a measure of the current state of economic activity and provides advanced information on upturns and downturns in economic activity in relation to GDP as well as data on production, retail sales, wages and household incomes. The average prognostic timeframe of the WWK index in relation to the actual state of economic affairs ranges from 3 to 12 months, depending on the phase of the economic cycle.

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