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The October rebound of industrial output a temporary statistical phenomenon


The better-than-expected figures for industrial output in October are not indicative of any turnaround in the economy. Just like the deep slump recorded in September, they are largely a blip caused by statistical factors and do not properly reflect economic conditions at the time.

In October industrial output growth was supported by more working days than in the same month of 2011, i.e. a reversal of the situation in September, as well as by a somewhat lower base of comparison than the month before. And although output growth improved slightly in seasonally-adjusted terms as well (an increase of 0.6% y-o-y in October, compared with a decrease of 1.6% y-o-y in September), industrial activity in Poland remains weak.

The near term outlook for the country’s industrial sector is not optimistic, either, in the context of recession in the eurozone and a noticeable weakening of domestic demand. While output growth might still hover around zero in November, fewer working days in December as compared with a year ago mean industrial production could fall well into negative territory in the closing month of the year. Output figures can be expected to improve from the spring of 2013 onwards thanks to more favourable base effects. However, a significant recovery is likely to occur only the second half of next year, as the eurozone economy starts to emerge from the crisis.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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