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Current account deficit at €1.1bn in September


2012-11-13



The current account balance was negative in September and amounted to -€1.14bn, according to preliminary data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The market had anticipated a smaller deficit of about €850m.

In the corresponding period of 2011 the current account balance totalled -€1.54bn. The significant narrowing of the current account deficit was due primarily to a reversal on the trade account, which improved by €352m and showed a surplus of €84m. The surplus on the services account increased by €75m, while the deficit on the current transfers account narrowed by €43m to €17m. On the other hand, the deficit on the income account widened by €68m.

At the same time, cumulative data for the 12 months ending in September show a current account deficit of €14.3bn (approx. 3.9% of GDP), down by almost 27% y-o-y. As with the monthly balance, the decline primarily reflects a sharp improvement on the trade account, whose balance, while still in negative territory, showed an almost 40% y-o-y fall in the deficit, by €4.3bn to just below €6.6bn. The surplus on the services account increased by €837m, while the deficit on the income account decreased by €242m. By contrast, the surplus on the current transfers account narrowed by €119m.

In 2011 as a whole the current account deficit stood at €18bn (i.e. 4.9% of GDP) and was 0.7% lower than the year before. We forecast that in 2012 the deficit will shrink to 3.6% of GDP.

Current account balance in Poland (? m), September 2011-September 2012



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