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Brussels: GDP growth in Poland to be 1.8% in 2013


2012-11-08



The European Commission has lowered its forecast of economic growth in Poland this year and next, to reflect the impact of weakening domestic demand. The Polish economy is now projected to grow 2.4% in 2012 and 1.8% in 2013, rather than the 2.7% and 2.6% foreseen in the Commission’s spring forecast. In 2014 growth is to accelerate to 2.6%.

In its European Economic Forecast. Autumn 2012 report, Brussels says that the Polish economy is expected to continue its slowdown in the second half of 2012, as weaker external demand is compounded by a further deterioration in consumer and producer confidence, with negative consequences for private investment, employment growth and private consumption.

In 2013 domestic demand will remain constrained by poor labour market conditions, lower consumer and business sentiment, and slower inflows of EU funds. Public investment growth will turn negative amid ongoing, if slower, fiscal consolidation and a dearth of major infrastructure projects, while private investment will decelerate compared with 2011-2012, the Commission predicts. Private investment and consumption are expected to pick up in 2014 thanks to improving global conditions, however.

By way of comparison, the Czech economy is forecast to contract by 1.3% this year and to post growth of 0.8% in 2013 and 2% in 2014. Slovakia is to see growth of 2.6%, 2% and 3% in 2012-2014, whereas Hungary will experience a -1.2% decline in GDP this year, to be followed by growth of 0.3% in 2013 and 1.3% in 2014, according to the Commission.

Growth in the euro area is now forecast to be -0.4% in 2012, 0.1% in 2013, and 1.4% in 2014.



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