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Lewiatan Business Index down in October


The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index shed three points to stand at 31 points in October, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index also dropped three points to 27. Both are now at their lowest levels in a decade.

According to the Confederation, the deceleration of economic growth in Poland is attributable, not only or principally to the global downturn, but to a slump in domestic demand, caused by a drop off of public investment and weaker consumption, which is being hurt by rising unemployment and falling real wages. The effects of the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts and a tight monetary policy also play a part. Net exports remain the sole positive contributor to GDP growth, but they are unlikely to compensate fully for the weakness in the domestic economy.

The Confederation says the readings of both indices suggest the present slowdown will not be less severe than the two preceding downturns.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

Lewiatan Business Index in Poland, October 2011-October 2012

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