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IBnGR: economy to grow 2% in 2013


GDP growth in Poland will amount to 2.4% this year and will decelerate to 2% in 2013, according to a latest set of forecasts from the Gdansk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR), one of the country’s leading think tanks.

The IBnGR expects economic activity will continue to slow down in Q4 2012 and in the first half of next year from an estimated 1.9% y-o-y in Q3, but sees no threat of recession and predicts that growth will start picking up from mid-2013 onwards, moving back above 2% y-o-y in Q3 2013 after reaching a low point of 1.4% y-o-y in Q2 2013.

The registered unemployment rate is forecast to reach 13.3% at the end of this year and to increase to 13.6% in 2013. Employment growth will be 0.2% this year and 0.8% next. CPI inflation will slow to 3.9% and 3%, respectively, according to the Institute. Real wage growth will come in at 0.2% this year and 0.9% next.

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