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Current account balance at -€633bn in August


The current account balance amounted to -€633m in August, according to preliminary data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The market had anticipated a significantly bigger deficit of about €1bn.

In the corresponding period of 2012 the current account balance totalled -€1.67bn. The substantial reduction of the current account deficit, by over €1bn, was due primarily to a sharply lower deficit on the trade account, which shrank to just €48m from €921m a year earlier. Also, the surplus on the services account increased by €172m, and the deficit on the income account fell by €41m. On the other hand, the surplus on the current transfers account declined by €48m.

At the same time, cumulative data for the 12 months ending in August show a current account deficit of €14.72bn, down by 25.6% compared the same period a year earlier. As with the monthly balance, the improvement primarily reflects a sharply smaller deficit on the trade account, which fell by over €4bn, i.e. by more than a third, as well as a higher surplus on the services account, which increased by €865m. The deficit on the income account also narrowed, by €174m. The surplus on the current transfers account decreased by €178m.

In 2011 as a whole the current account deficit stood at €18bn (approx. 4.9% of GDP) and was 0.7% lower than the year before. We forecast that in 2012 the deficit will shrink to about 3.5% of GDP.

Current account balance in Poland (? m), August 2011-August 2012

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