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Inflation stays at 3.8% y-o-y in September


The consumer price index (CPI) amounted to 3.8% y-o-y in September, the same as in the previous month, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported. The figure is marginally below market expectations, which averaged 3.9% y-o-y.

By far the highest price increase in the 12 months to September was noted in transport, a category that includes car fuel (up by 8% y-o-y). Above-average price growth was also noted in housing and energy (up by 5.5% y-o-y) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (up by 5.3% y-o-y). Prices in the category of beverages and tobacco products went up by 3.7% y-o-y, in health by 3.4% y-o-y, in hotels and restaurants by 2.9% y-o-y, and in education by 2.5% y-o-y. Prices in recreation and culture rose 0.9% y-o-y while communication charges inched up by 0.1% y-o-y. As in previous months, the only category to register a decline in prices in September was clothing and footwear (down by 5% y-o-y).

On a month-on-month basis the CPI was 0.1%.

In January-September consumer prices rose by 4% y-o-y. We forecast that in 2012 as a whole the average annualised CPI will amount to 3.9%.

Consumer price index in Poland (%, y-o-y), September 2011-September 2012

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