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Lewiatan Business Index down in September


The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index shed two points to stand at 34 points in September, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index dropped three points to 30.

According to the Confederation, the readings indicate that the pace of economic growth will be substantially lower in the second half of 2012 than it was in H1 2012, and might even get down near the level it was three years ago.

That the economy is slowing down is evident from all major indicators, from decelerating industrial output and retail sales growth, through lower construction activity, to stagnant job creation and rising unemployment. Net exports are now the only growth-supporting factor, especially considering the relatively strong figures for July. Consumption is being held back by falling real incomes, while business investment is unlikely to avoid a slowdown, and foreign direct investment inflows have cooled amid deteriorating global conditions.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

Lewiatan Business Index in Poland, September 2011-September 2012

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