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BIEC: economic climate down slightly in September


The Leading Indicator (WWK), which provides information on future trends in the economy, slipped by 0.2 points in September, the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC) reported. The behaviour of the index suggests a slowing of economic activity without a risk of recession, the Bureau commented.

Three components of the WWK improved in September, three deteriorated, and two remained unchanged from August. The changes in either direction were so small that it is legitimate to speak of a continuation of earlier tendencies, the BIEC said.

There was a slight improvement in the flow of new orders in September, both domestic and export orders, though that does not change the negative trend seen for over a year, with the automotive, textiles and pharmaceutical sectors particularly affected. One cause for concern are lower orders in the machinery and equipment sector. Inventories of finished goods increased and so did labour productivity.

In the business sector, assessments of the financial health of own company did not change, but there was a deterioration in perceptions about the economy.

The WWK is a prognostic instrument. It is a measure of the current state of economic activity and provides advanced information on upturns and downturns in economic activity in relation to GDP as well as data on production, retail sales, wages and household incomes. The average prognostic timeframe of the WWK index in relation to the actual state of economic affairs ranges from 3 to 12 months, depending on the phase of the economic cycle.

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