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Current account balance at -€1bn in July


The current account balance amounted to -€1.03bn in July, according to preliminary data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The market had anticipated a bigger deficit of about €1.3bn.

In the corresponding period of 2011 the current account balance totaled -€1.87bn. The significant reduction of the current account deficit was due primarily to a sharply smaller deficit on the trade account, which declined by €875m, or almost 74% y-o-y, to -€314m. The surpluses on the services and current transfers accounts also improved, though from a low base, by a combined €199m. Meanwhile, the deficit on the income account widened by almost a fifth to -€1.56bn.

At the same time, cumulative data for the 12 months ending in July show a current account deficit of €15.69bn, down from -€18.22bn in the same period a year earlier. The improvement of the annual balance likewise reflects a lower deficit on the trade account (by more than €3.1bn), and higher surpluses on the services and current transfers accounts (by a combined €1.1bn). This more than offset a €1.6bn increase in the deficit on the income account.

In 2011 as a whole the current account deficit stood at €16bn (approx. 4.4% of GDP) and was 3% lower than the year before. We forecast that in 2012 the deficit will shrink to about 3.8% of GDP.

Current account balance in Poland (? m), July 2011-July 2012

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