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Lewiatan Business Index down in August


2012-09-05



The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index dipped one point to stand at 36 points in August, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index dropped by two points to 33.

According to the Confederation, the August readings are a clear indication that economic activity in Poland will decelerate in the second half of 2012, a process that started already in Q2. GDP figures for April-June showed a slower pace of expansion as domestic demand faltered, and first data for the third quarter provide little cause for optimism. Although both industrial output and retail sales picked up somewhat in July, they remained at relatively low levels and with the real wage bill contracting and exports slowing down, the fundamentals are not there for any significant improvement. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment inflows are also decelerating as the global economic outlook remains uncertain, particularly in Europe, and there are even some signs of capital outflows.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

Lewiatan Business Index in Poland, August 2011-August 2012



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