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GDP growth slows to 2.4% y-o-y in Q2


Poland’s gross domestic product amounted to just under PLN 388.4bn (approx. €91.3bn) in the second quarter of 2012, which in real terms translates into an increase of 2.4% compared with the same period a year ago, according to a preliminary estimate from the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The result is below a market consensus of 2.9% y-o-y, and compares to 3.5% y-o-y growth in Q1.

The main factor behind the deceleration of GDP growth in Q2 was a 0.2% y-o-y slide in domestic demand, its first fall since Q3 2009. This was due to weak gross capital formation, which made a negative contribution of 1.1 p.p. to GDP growth for the quarter. A positive 0.9 p.p. contribution from consumption was not sufficient to compensate for this effect.

At the same time, the contribution of net exports was highly positive at 2.6 p.p., reflecting a combination of lower imports and a somewhat slower rate of export growth.

In the first half of 2012, the Polish economy expanded by 2.9% y-o-y.

GDP and its components changes in Poland (%, y-o-y), Q1 2009-Q2 2012

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