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BIEC: economic climate up slightly in August


2012-08-27



The Leading Indicator (WWK), which provides information on future trends in the economy, inched up by 0.1 points in August to reach 143.2 points, the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC) reported. The fractional improvement does not affect the long-term trend for a gradual decrease of the indicator that has been observed for about a year and which indicates that the economy is entering a slowdown, the Bureau commented.

Four components of the WWK improved in August, and four turned for the worse. The biggest negative contributor was a deterioration in the financial situation of companies, observed across all sectors. Perceptions of the general economic outlook also went down. Labour productivity in the manufacturing sector decreased, and so did inventories of finished goods. On the other hand, there was a slight rise in new orders, but export orders remained on a downward trajectory. There was also an increase in real money supply, a slight acceleration in new household debt, and an improvement in sentiment on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

The WWK is a prognostic instrument. It is a measure of the current state of economic activity and provides advanced information on upturns and downturns in economic activity in relation to GDP as well as data on production, retail sales, wages and household incomes. The average prognostic timeframe of the WWK index in relation to the actual state of economic affairs ranges from 3 to 12 months, depending on the phase of the economic cycle.



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