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July’s strong industrial output growth unlikely to repeat in remainder of 2012


Having decelerated significantly in June, the rate of growth in industrial output quickened sharply last month. However, the result should not be read as an indication that the negative economic trends are beginning to reverse. The apparent improvement is primarily due to statistical factors, namely a low comparative base and more working days than a year earlier.

Seasonally-adjusted data, while also better than in June, confirm that activity in Poland’s industrial sector has remained subdued for several months now. And while the latest GUS survey of business confidence in the manufacturing sector, carried out in August, does not point to any sharp deterioration, we expect annual industrial output growth to decelerate noticeably in the coming months (with a possible temporary dip into negative territory, particularly in Q4), pulled down by unfavourable base effects. We are of the view that until the eurozone debt crisis is resolved and global economic conditions improve, industrial output in Poland is unlikely to return to the high growth rates seen in late 2011.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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