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Industrial output up by 5.2% y-o-y in July


Industrial output rose by 5.2% y-o-y in July, a sharp acceleration compared with the previous month, according to data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The result exceeded market expectations, which were for an increase of 4.2% y-o-y.

Compared with the corresponding period of 2011, output was up in 23 (out of 34) industrial sectors. Of the main sectors, the highest increase was noted in manufacturing (up by 5.8% y-o-y), followed by electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up by 3% y-o-y). Output in the water supply, waste management and remediation activities sector edged up by 0.3% y-o-y. By contrast, in mining-quarrying production declined by 3.3% y-o-y.

In the case of the country’s manufacturing sub-sectors, double-digit increases in output were recorded in tobacco products (up by 28.7% y-o-y), other transport equipment (up by 19.4% y-o-y), beverages (up by 17.7% y-o-y), printing and reproduction of recorded media (up by 17.1% y-o-y), textiles (up by 13.5% y-o-y), electrical equipment (up by 11.5% y-o-y), and food products (up by 10.4% y-o-y). Above-average increases were recorded in chemicals and chemical products, paper and paper products (up by 8.5% y-o-y in both cases), metal products (up by 8% y-o-y), or machinery and equipment (up by 6.9% y-o-y). On the other hand, production of pharmaceuticals declined by 7.9% y-o-y, furniture by 5.2% y-o-y, computers, electronic and optical products by 3.8% y-o-y, and other non-metallic mineral products by 1.1% y-o-y.

In January-July industrial output rose by 4.1% y-o-y.Industrial output in Poland (%, y-o-y), July 2011-July 2012Having decelerated significantly in June, the rate of growth in industrial output quickened sharply last month. However, the result should not be read as an indication that the negative economic trends are beginning to reverse. The apparent improvement is primarily due to statistical factors, namely a low comparative base and more working days than a year earlier.

Seasonally-adjusted data, while also better than in June, confirm that activity in Poland’s industrial sector has remained subdued for several months now. And while the latest GUS survey of business confidence in the manufacturing sector, carried out in August, does not point to any sharp deterioration, we expect annual industrial output growth to decelerate noticeably in the coming months (with a possible temporary dip into negative territory, particularly in Q4), pulled down by unfavourable base effects. We are of the view that until the eurozone debt crisis is resolved and global economic conditions improve, industrial output in Poland is unlikely to return to the high growth rates seen in late 2011.

Paweł Sionko

Senior Economist

PMR Publications

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