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Current account balance at -€1.2bn in June


The current account balance was negative in June and amounted to -€1.24bn, according to preliminary data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The market had anticipated a bigger deficit of €1.5bn.

In the corresponding period of 2011 the current account balance totaled -€2.02bn. The significant narrowing of the deficit was due primarily to a sharply smaller deficit on the trade account, which declined by 66% y-o-y to €412m. The deficit on the income account also fell, by 10% y-o-y to €1.44bn. This well outweighed decreases in the surpluses on the services and current transfers accounts, which were small in absolute terms.

At the same time, cumulative data for the 12 months ending in June show a current account deficit of €16.53bn (approx. 4.5% of GDP), down by 8% over the same period a year earlier. The improvement of the annual balance reflects a lower deficit on the trade account (by over €1.8bn) and bigger surpluses on the current transfers and services accounts, which more than offset a €1.5bn increase in the deficit on the income account.

In 2011 as a whole the current account deficit stood at €16bn (i.e. 4.4% of GDP) and was 3% lower than the year before. We forecast that in 2012 the deficit will shrink to about 3.8% of GDP.

Current account balance in Poland (? m), June 2011-June 2012

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