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Foreign trade deficit at €5.9bn in H1


Polish exports of goods were worth €68.3bn in the first half of 2012, while imports totaled €74.2bn, according to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS). This translates into a nominal increase of 1.1% y-o-y and a decline of 1.9% y-o-y, respectively. As a result, the country’s foreign trade deficit amounted to €5.9bn, compared with €8.1bn in the corresponding period of 2011.

Poland’s trade balance with the countries of the European Union as well as with the wider category of developed countries improved markedly over this period, showing surpluses of €10bn and €9.1bn, respectively. The balance with developing countries also improved, with the deficit narrowing by 8% y-o-y to €8.9bn. By contrast, the deficit with the countries of Southern and Eastern Europe increased by almost a third to €6.1bn.

Of Poland’s main trading partners, by far the highest increase in exports was to Russia (up by 22.8% y-o-y) and Ukraine (up by 20.7% y-o-y). Exports to Great Britain grew by 4.4% y-o-y, to the Netherlands by 4.3% y-o-y and to Slovakia by 3.9% y-o-y. Exports to the Czech Republic inched up by 1.2% y-o-y. Exports to Germany, Poland’s main trading partner accounting for just over a quarter of the country’s exports of goods, were 1% lower than in H1 2011. Exports to France were down by 2.1% y-o-y, and to Italy and Sweden by 8.5% y-o-y.

The biggest increase in imports was also with Russia (up by 27.2% y-o-y), followed at a wide distance by the United States (up by 5.6% y-o-y) and China (up by 2.4% y-o-y). Imports from the Netherlands edged up by 0.4% y-o-y. Imports from the remaining top-ten countries were lower than in January-June 2011. The smallest decrease was in imports from South Korea (down by 0.8% y-o-y), and the biggest declines were recorded in imports from France (down by 11.1% y-o-y) and Great Britain (down 11.7% y-o-y).

We forecast that in 2012 as a whole Polish exports of goods will rise by 2.9%, and imports by 0.5%. As a result, the foreign trade deficit will amount to €12.7bn.Foreign trade in Poland (%, y-o-y), 2004-2011 and H1 2012

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