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Morgan Stanley cuts Poland growth forecast to 2.1% for 2013


Morgan Stanley has cut significantly its forecast of economic growth in Poland in 2013, and trimmed slightly its estimate for this year, citing deteriorating external conditions and weakening domestic demand. The US bank now expects the Polish economy to grow by 2.6% this year, compared with previously forecast 2.7%, and to decelerate to 2.1% in 2013, compared with an earlier projection of 3.6% growth.

According to Morgan Stanley, economic activity in Poland will remain below potential over the next two years due a difficult external environment and growing caution on the part of households, companies and banks. The US bank forecasts that economic output in the eurozone, home to Poland’s main trading partners, will contract by 0.5% this year, rather than by 0.3% as previously thought, and will post zero growth in 2013. The German economy, Poland’s biggest trading partner, is to show only modest growth of 0.9% this year and 0.8% next.

By way of comparison, the Czech Republic and Hungary are both predicted to experience negative GDP growth this year (down by 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively), and to see a modest recovery in 2013 (up by 1.2% and 0.7%).

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