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Foreign trade deficit in 2011 higher at €15.9bn


The Central Statistical Office (GUS) has published revised and final foreign trade figures for 2011. They show that the total value of Polish exports of goods amounted to €136.7bn last year, while imports totaled €152.6bn, which translates into nominal increases of 13.6% and 13.7%, respectively. As a result, the country’s foreign trade deficit amounted to €15.9bn (i.e. 4.2% of GDP), up by 14.9% compared with 2010. The initial estimate published in February put the figure at €14.7bn.

Poland’s trade balance with the European Union improved slightly in 2011, and so did (more substantially) the balance with the wider category of developed countries. They showed surpluses of €15.6bn and €13.4bn, respectively. The deficit with developing countries narrowed marginally to €19.1bn, while the deficit with the countries of Southern and Eastern Europe widened by almost 64% to €10.2bn.

Of Poland’s main trading partners, the highest increase in exports was to Russia (up by 22% y-o-y), followed by the Czech Republic (up by 18.5% y-o-y), Great Britain (up by 16.5% y-o-y), Germany (up by 13.5% y-o-y), Ukraine (up by 13.3% y-o-y), the Netherlands (up by 13.1% y-o-y), and Sweden (up by 9.5% y-o-y). Exports to Hungary, France and Italy were up by low single digits.

The highest increase in imports, and by far, was also with Russia (up by 33.9% y-o-y), followed in distant second by Germany (up by 15.9% y-o-y), and in third by the Netherlands (up by 14.9% y-o-y). Double-digit increases, or close, were also recorded in imports from the Czech Republic (up by 12% y-o-y), France (up by 9.9% y-o-y), and Great Britain (up by 9.2% y-o-y). Imports from Italy went up by 7.7% y-o-y, from Belgium by 5.5% y-o-y, from China by 5% y-o-y and from the United States by 1.8% y-o-y.

We forecast that in 2012 Polish exports of goods will rise by 2.9%, and imports by 0.5%. As a result, the foreign trade deficit will amount to €12.7bn.

Foreign trade in Poland (%, y-o-y), 2004-2011

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