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Foreign trade deficit in 2011 higher at €15.9bn


2012-08-02



The Central Statistical Office (GUS) has published revised and final foreign trade figures for 2011. They show that the total value of Polish exports of goods amounted to €136.7bn last year, while imports totaled €152.6bn, which translates into nominal increases of 13.6% and 13.7%, respectively. As a result, the country’s foreign trade deficit amounted to €15.9bn (i.e. 4.2% of GDP), up by 14.9% compared with 2010. The initial estimate published in February put the figure at €14.7bn.

Poland’s trade balance with the European Union improved slightly in 2011, and so did (more substantially) the balance with the wider category of developed countries. They showed surpluses of €15.6bn and €13.4bn, respectively. The deficit with developing countries narrowed marginally to €19.1bn, while the deficit with the countries of Southern and Eastern Europe widened by almost 64% to €10.2bn.

Of Poland’s main trading partners, the highest increase in exports was to Russia (up by 22% y-o-y), followed by the Czech Republic (up by 18.5% y-o-y), Great Britain (up by 16.5% y-o-y), Germany (up by 13.5% y-o-y), Ukraine (up by 13.3% y-o-y), the Netherlands (up by 13.1% y-o-y), and Sweden (up by 9.5% y-o-y). Exports to Hungary, France and Italy were up by low single digits.

The highest increase in imports, and by far, was also with Russia (up by 33.9% y-o-y), followed in distant second by Germany (up by 15.9% y-o-y), and in third by the Netherlands (up by 14.9% y-o-y). Double-digit increases, or close, were also recorded in imports from the Czech Republic (up by 12% y-o-y), France (up by 9.9% y-o-y), and Great Britain (up by 9.2% y-o-y). Imports from Italy went up by 7.7% y-o-y, from Belgium by 5.5% y-o-y, from China by 5% y-o-y and from the United States by 1.8% y-o-y.

We forecast that in 2012 Polish exports of goods will rise by 2.9%, and imports by 0.5%. As a result, the foreign trade deficit will amount to €12.7bn.

Foreign trade in Poland (%, y-o-y), 2004-2011



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PMR is a British-American company providing market information, advice and services to international businesses interested in Central and Eastern Europe as well as other emerging markets. PMR key areas of operation include business publications (through PMR Publications), consultancy (through PMR Consulting) and market research (through PMR Research). With over fourteen years of experience, high international standards in projects and publications, highly skilled multilingual staff and a wide network of co-operating research companies and market experts, PMR is one of the largest companies of its type in the region.