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Lewiatan Business Index dips in July


The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index shed one point to stand at 37 points in July, remaining at its lowest level since two years, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index dropped by five points to 35, also a two-year low.

In its commentary, the Confederation notes that having remained relatively stable between February and May, the indices have now entered a clear downward trajectory, signalling that the second half of 2012 will be worse for the Polish economy than H1. Macroeconomic data for the second quarter show a further softening of economic activity in Poland, due to faltering demand at home and abroad and uncertainty about the global economic outlook. Faced with a marked deceleration of export growth, manufacturers are forced to cut back on production and hiring, which is showing up in weaker industrial output figures and stagnating job creation. This, in turn, is holding back wage growth, which is running at zero or even negative levels in real terms. The real wage bill has been stagnant for several months, exerting a squeeze on private consumption; and ongoing fiscal retrenchment is putting a brake on public consumption. Meanwhile, the strengthening zloty does not help exports. One small source of hope is that some investments related to Euro 2012 that reached an advanced stage before the tournament will not be abruptly ended. There has also been some improvement in business sentiment in recent weeks.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

Lewiatan Business Index in Poland, July 2011-July 2012

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