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EBRD: Polish economy to grow by 2.9% in 2012 and 2.4% in 2013


The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised upwards its forecast of economic growth in Poland in 2012 but cut substantially its estimate for next year, due to the crisis in the eurozone.

In its Regional Economic Prospects report, released on 25 July, the bank notes that the impact of the euro area crisis on emerging Europe is spreading further east, and will continue to negatively affect economies in the transition region that are closely intertwined with those of the eurozone. Even so, growth in Poland is now projected to be somewhat better this year than previously forecast, at 2.9% rather than 2.7%, thanks to the country’s reliance on a large domestic market and good policy track record. However, in 2013 GDP growth is expected to decelerate more sharply, to 2.4% instead of 2.9%, as weak external conditions are compounded by the effects of fiscal adjustments that will reduce infrastructure spending and social transfers.

By way of comparison, the Slovak economy is forecast to grow by 2.6% this year and by 2.3% next, and Hungary is expected to experience an economic contraction of 1.3% in 2012 before recovering to post marginal growth of 0.4% in 2013.

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