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Current account balance at -€815m in May


The current account balance was negative in May and amounted to -€815m, according to preliminary data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The market had anticipated a sharply smaller deficit of €285m.

In the corresponding period of 2011 the current account balance totaled -€182m. The significant increase in the deficit was due primarily to a substantially smaller surplus on the current transfers account, which declined by €447m compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, the deficit on the income account widened while the surplus on the services account decreased versus May 2011, but by smaller amounts. Meanwhile, the deficit on the trade account remained broadly unchanged from a year ago.

At the same time, cumulative data for the 12 months ending in May show a current account deficit of €17.38bn, up by 1.4% over the same period a year earlier. The marginal deterioration of the annual balance reflects a markedly bigger deficit on the income account, which increased by over €2bn, more than offsetting concurrent improvements on the three remaining accounts, and particularly on the services account (by almost €1bn).

In 2011 as a whole the current account deficit stood at €16bn (approx. 4.4% of GDP) and was 3% lower than the year before. We forecast that in 2012 the deficit will shrink to about 3.8% of GDP.

Current account balance in Poland (? m), May 2011-May 2012

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