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BIEC: economic climate improves in June


The Leading Indicator (WWK), which provides information on future trends in the economy, gained 2.6 points in June, the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC) reported. Although the improvement is substantial and not entirely attributable to short-term factors, the underlying trend remains for a gradual weakening of economic activity in the second half of 2012, according to the BIEC.

The Bureau notes that the June bounce of the WWK reflects a combination of temporary factors, notably a depreciation of the zloty and an upturn in sectors with exposure to Euro 2012; and cost-cutting efforts by companies, which might have a long-term effect of enhancing their competitiveness, thus leading to higher output and contributing to an economic recovery. The near-term outlook, however, remains moderately negative.

Of the eight components of the WWK, six improved in June, one remained unchanged and one deteriorated. The biggest contributor to the indicator’s improvement was an increase in manufacturing orders, mainly from the domestic market. Export orders have been diminishing for more than a year now and given the continued weakness in Europe, an early reversal of this downward trend is unlikely, the Bureau reckons.

The WWK is a prognostic instrument. It is a measure of the current state of economic activity and provides advanced information on upturns and downturns in economic activity in relation to GDP as well as data on production, retail sales, wages and household incomes. The average prognostic timeframe of the WWK index in relation to the actual state of economic affairs ranges from 3 to 12 months, depending on the phase of the economic cycle.

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