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May employment confirms tough labour market situation


Despite the addition of seasonal jobs and the finishing stages of Euro 2012-related infrastructure projects, not only did average employment in Poland’s enterprise sector not increase in May, but it actually showed a marginal m-o-m decrease. With the economy slowing down, the solid employment growth that occurred in the construction industry was not enough to offset a reduction in manufacturing jobs. As a result, the spring recovery in the labour market proved much weaker than last year and slower than expected.

It is possible that employment data for the whole economy will show in Q2 a greater positive impact on the country’s job market of Euro 2012 than is suggested by the above figures. However, any boost will be only temporary, and companies will remain reluctant to hire new workers in the remainder of the year unless and until the situation in the eurozone improves and the economy regains momentum. Unfortunately, economic forecasts for the second half of 2012 are far from optimistic, and while seasonal jobs should stop the labour market from deteriorating in the summer months, we expect the unemployment rate to resume its upward climb thereafter, and to reach about 13% by the end of the year.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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