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Weak labour demand keeps wage growth subdued


Although nominal wage growth in the enterprise sector accelerated slightly in May, it remained moderate, staying below 4% y-o-y for the third consecutive month. Furthermore, the uptick was in large part a statistical effect resulting from a low comparative base. And the marginally positive real wage growth recorded in May was a consequence of a deceleration in inflation over this period.

While June’s Euro 2012 might exert an upward pressure on wages, its impact will be short-lived and compensated for by an anticipated bounce in consumer inflation. With the labour market remaining sluggish and with the economy cooling down noticeably, wage pressures are unlikely to increase in the months ahead. We forecast than in 2012 wages in Poland will rise by about 4% in nominal terms.

Paweł Sionko
Construction Market Analyst, PMR

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