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Employment up by 0.3% y-o-y in May


Average monthly employment in the enterprise sector amounted to just under 5.53 million people in May, an increase of 0.3% in comparison with the corresponding period of 2011, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The figure is in line with market expectations.

On a month-on-month basis employment remained roughly unchanged.

During the analysed period there were approximately 800 fewer people in work compared with April. In the 12 months to May average employment in the enterprise sector rose by about 16,300.

In January-May 2012 employment increased by 0.5% y-o-y.

Average monthly employment in enterprise sector in Poland (%, y-o-y), May 2011-May 2012

Despite the addition of seasonal jobs and the finishing stages of Euro 2012-related infrastructure projects, not only did average employment in Poland’s enterprise sector not increase in May, but it actually showed a marginal m-o-m decrease. With the economy slowing down, the solid employment growth that occurred in the construction industry was not enough to offset a reduction in manufacturing jobs. As a result, the spring recovery in the labour market proved much weaker than last year and slower than expected.

It is possible that employment data for the whole economy will show in Q2 a greater positive impact on the country’s job market of Euro 2012 than is suggested by the above figures. However, any boost will be only temporary, and companies will remain reluctant to hire new workers in the remainder of the year unless and until the situation in the eurozone improves and the economy regains momentum. Unfortunately, economic forecasts for the second half of 2012 are far from optimistic, and while seasonal jobs should stop the labour market from deteriorating in the summer months, we expect the unemployment rate to resume its upward climb thereafter, and to reach about 13% by the end of the year.

Paweł Sionko

Senior Economist

PMR Publications

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