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Lewiatan Business Index unchanged in May


The annual PKPP Lewiatan Business Index stayed put at 40 points in May, the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan announced. The quarterly index likewise remained unmoved from April, at 44.

In its commentary, the Confederation notes that the performance of the annual and quarterly indices points to a major slowdown of economic growth in Poland in the second half of 2012. Industrial output has already slowed noticeably in the past few months, and now retail sales are following suit, after months of high resilience in the face of stagnant wages and employment, as the wage bill starts shrinking in real terms. At the same time, export growth is flagging due to deteriorating conditions in Poland’s main trading partners, though an even sharper cooling of import growth means the contribution of net exports remains positive. The slowdown of GDP growth observed in Q1 is set to continue in Q2 and to deepen further in the second half of the year, especially since the anticipated weakening of consumption is unlikely to be sufficiently compensated for by business investment. Though companies in Poland appear keen to use their record profits to modernise their machine parks during the soft period so as to enhance their competitiveness for better times, this is going to be difficult in a context of fiscal consolidation and tighter monetary policy, the Confederation concludes.

The PKPP Lewiatan Business Index is constructed on the basis of market prognoses prepared by Poland’s leading economists for the current quarter, half year and full year. It is measured on a 100-point scale, where a score of 50 corresponds to an economic growth forecast of around 4% of GDP annually.

Lewiatan Business Index in Poland, May 2011-May 2012

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