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BIEC: economic climate cools in May


The Leading Indicator (WWK), which provides information on future trends in the economy, dipped by 0.2 points in May, the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC) reported. The result is a further indication that the economy is losing momentum, according to the BIEC.

Of the eight components of the WWK, five have been on a downward trajectory for more than a year. The biggest contributor to the indicator’s fall are rising inventories, followed by slower inflows of orders in the manufacturing sector, particularly domestic orders. Negative trends continue in money supply, with falling household and business deposits, and the financial condition of enterprises is deteriorating. And the April decline in the stock markets has hurt investor sentiment.

The three components with an upward impact on the WWK include labour productivity, rising household debt from bank loans (partly as a result of a weaker zloty), and a slight improvement in sentiment among managers.

The WWK is a prognostic instrument. It is a measure of the current state of economic activity and provides advanced information on upturns and downturns in economic activity in relation to GDP as well as data on production, retail sales, wages and household incomes. The average prognostic timeframe of the WWK index in relation to the actual state of economic affairs ranges from 3 to 12 months, depending on the phase of the economic cycle.

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