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OECD: Poland to see growth of 2.9% in 2012-2013


Economic growth in Poland will decelerate to about 3% this year and next due to weaker external demand, the eurozone crisis, fiscal consolidation, and lower public investments, as well as a levelling off of EU funds in 2013, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says in its latest Economic Outlook report released on 22 May.

The OECD has slightly lowered its forecast of GDP growth Poland this year, to 2.9% from 3% in March, with a similar growth rate projected for 2013.

According to the Organisation, the Polish government will succeed in fulfilling this year’s budget deficit target, with the general government deficit forecast to drop to 2.9% of GDP from 5.1% in 2011. However, it will need to do more to meet the 2.2% of GDP target it has set for 2013, the report says. The general government debt is forecast to decline to 56% of GDP this year (from 56.4% in 2011), and to 55.4% in 2013.

CPI inflation is projected to ease from 4.3% in 2011 to 3.9% in 2012 and to 2.8% in 2013, whereas the LFS unemployment rate is expected to be 10.3% in 2012 and to increase to 10.6% in 2013.

By way of comparison, the Czech economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2012 before rebounding to 1.7% growth in 2013; Slovakia is to grow by 2.6% this year and 3% next; whereas Hungary will experience a 1.5% economic slump in 2012 and growth of 1.1% in 2013.

Overall the OECD concludes that the global economy is gradually gaining strength, but that the recovery is fragile, extremely uneven geographically and at risk of being undermined by the problems of the eurozone.

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