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Current account balance at -€228m in March


The current account balance was negative in March and amounted to -€228m, according to preliminary data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The market had anticipated a much bigger deficit of about €1bn.

In the corresponding period of 2011 the current account balance totaled -€1.11bn. The sharp narrowing of the deficit is due primarily to a dramatic increase in the surplus on the current transfers account, which more than tripled to €971m, as well as to a markedly smaller deficit on the trade account, which fell by over 40% y-o-y to €399m. The surplus on the services account likewise improved, but by a small amount. On the other hand, there was a modest widening of the deficit on the income account.

At the same time, cumulative data for the 12 months ending in March show a current account deficit of €16.42bn (approx. 4.5% of GDP), down by 4.7% over the same period a year earlier. The marginal improvement of the annual balance is attributable to significantly higher surpluses on the services and current transfers accounts, which more than compensated for bigger deficits on the trade and income accounts.

In 2011 as a whole the current account deficit stood at €15.9bn (i.e. 4.3% of GDP) and was 3.5% lower than the year before. We forecast that in 2012 the deficit will shrink to about 3.9% of GDP.

Current account balance in Poland (? m), March 2011-March 2012

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